Bitcoin Price Risks Further Decline After Recovery Rally Stalls

View

• Bitcoin has cemented its third straight monthly loss after September 24 and 26 produced a large sell-off and dragged prices lower, opening up the possibility for another price drop.
• Supposed bullish catalysts such as Bakkt’s physically-backed bitcoin futures product fell short of expectations, possibly raising a red flag for institutional investors.
• Both the weekly RSI and awesome oscillator demonstrate waning interest from bullish buyers leading to expectations of further price declines.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent sell-offs on September 24 and 26 produced yet another bearish monthly closing candle, marking the third straight month in the red for the world’s premier crypto.

The top crypto is currently changing hands at $8,234 on Bitstamp, representing a 1.17-percent decline over the last 24 hours. Further price drops are likely, should the bulls fail to reverse the damage done at the end of September.

Further, October has started poorly for traders looking to capture the rebound to $8,511 on Tuesday, as prices were swiftly rejected back below $8,300 at around 02:00 UTC this morning.

Monthly chart

The third straight monthly loss has opened the doors for further price declines.

BTC has begun to form a similar monthly pattern to the one produced from February to October, 2018, whereby prices are finding a solid base of support at around $7,780 amid sliding overall interest – as expressed by the lower highs and limited price range of the last 3 monthly candles.

There’s hope that the sellers will become exhausted by the end of October’s closing period, as total volume has been declining period-to-period. That theory will be put to the test in coming days, because volatility generally increases during the middle of the month (based on  historical data).

Weekly chart

The weekly chart provides little in the way of a counter-narrative to the long-term bearish view seen on the monthly chart. Momentum has capped out beneath the neutral 50 zone on the RSI, a measurement of buyers and sellers of a particular asset over a particular time period.

Further, the awesome oscillator (AO), which also measures momentum and captures market cycles, demonstrates BTC’s slow and steady decline in perceived value, with prices struggling to rise back above $9,000 post market sell-off.

Given the current weekly trajectory and limited price range, the bears look set to drive prices toward the 50-period moving average (yellow line at top of above chart) at $6,700, coinciding with the descending triangle’s measured move, calculated from CoinDesk analysis conducted in early September.

Should prices rise back above $9,400 and then $9,800 (prior daily resistances), that would go a long way to reversing recent market developments and restoring investor confidence moving forward.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts via TradingView