With the SEC rejecting one Bitcoin ETF application and postponing decision on another, we should closely monitor the markets’ reaction.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
If an asset class doesn’t fall much on adverse news but rallies on good news, it is an indication that the trend is bullish. Various reasons are attributed to Bitcoin’s most recent 40 percent rally from the lows, but the most quoted one was the possibility of a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) within the next few weeks.
However, in the past three days, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed one proposal and shot down another.
While there are other ETF proposals pending with the SEC, the rejection of the Winklevoss twins’ Bitcoin ETF dampens sentiment. The extent of decline following this news will give us an idea whether the trend has turned positive or if the pullback from the lows was only a bear market rally.
The Bitcoin bulls are upbeat on the coin’s future prospects. Mark Yusko, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, has a target of $25,000 by end of this year. He believes that the rally will continue and that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by the end of 2024.
Similarly, Alexis Ohanian, a co-founder of the social media platform Reddit and a VC firm Initialized Capital had recently reiterated his year-end target of $20,000 on Bitcoin and $1,500 on Ethereum.
While we are also bullish, we are much more conservative in our approach. We like to take it one step at a time so as to not get carried away. The aim is to maximize profits for the readers, taking the least possible amount of risk.
BTC/USD
When a strong overhead resistance level is scaled, it is usually followed by a retest of the breakout level. Bitcoin has completed a similar retest of the $7,750 line. This level had been previously acting as a strong resistance, and will now act as a strong support.
A strong bounce from the support level indicates that the buyers were waiting for a dip to buy. Traders who have been waiting on the sidelines to buy on a deeper decline are left stranded. They are likely to jump into the fray once the price continues its journey northwards.
So, if the bulls can break out of $8,566.4, the likelihood of a rally to $10,000 increases, fuelled by the traders who have missed the bus and are feeling left out.
However, it might not be a one-way move, as the digital currency can face resistance at $8,888 and $9,375. Therefore, we suggest traders take partial profits at critical levels. If the bulls fail to scale above $8,566, partial profits can be booked closer to $8,400 and the stops on the long positions that were initiated at $6,650 can be raised to $7,400.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the BTC/USD pair slumps below $7,750.
ETH/USD
Ethereum has not been able to scale the 50-day SMA for the past three days. It is currently taking support at the trendline.
The ETH/USD pair has formed a small symmetrical triangle. A break out of the triangle increases the probability of a breakout above $500. On the other hand, if the bears force a breakdown, the virtual currency can slide down to $404.
The trendline of the symmetrical triangle has held since July 12, hence, we anticipate a bounce from it again. Therefore, we suggest holding the long position with the stop loss at $400.
XRP/USD
Ripple has been consolidating between $0.4242 and $0.51978 for more than a month. Currently, the prices have been hovering near the bottom of the range for the past six days. This shows a lack of buying at these levels.
If the bulls don’t force a bounce above $0.47 within the next couple of days, the XRP/USD pair might slump below $0.4242. Any breakdown of the range will be a bearish indicator, which can result in a fall to $0.33.
On the upside, $0.51978 will continue to act as a stiff resistance. If the bulls can push the prices higher and consolidate close to the top of the range, it will be a bullish sign. We shall wait for a break out of the range before proposing any trades on it.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash has failed to break out of the downtrend line for the past three days. This increases the probability of a break below the 20-day EMA, which is currently acting as a strong support.
There is a minor support at $745, below which the BCH/USD pair can slide to $670. On the upside, the $838.9139 – $934.2316 area will continue to act as a stiff resistance zone.
We propose holding the existing long position with the stops below $650. We shall close the position or trail the stops higher after a couple of days.
EOS/USD
EOS is extending its stay inside the range of $6.8926 – $9.4456. We will not be able to find a trade setup on it as long as it remains inside this range.
The first sign of a change in trend will be when the EOS/USD pair breaks out and closes above the range. The target following such a breakout is $11.9986, but we anticipate a resistance at $11.64.
On the contrary, if the bears break below $6.8926, the fall can extend to $4.3396, with a minor support at $5.1. We retain our buy recommendation given in the previous analysis.
LTC/USD
Litecoin has been consolidating in a tight range of $80 – $91 for the past ten days and in a broad range of $74.074 and $91.146 for more than a month.
If the bulls break out of the $91.146 area, the LTC/USD pair will rally towards $107, where it is likely to face a stiff resistance from the long-term downtrend line.
The cryptocurrency will turn negative if the bears force a breakdown below $74.074. We shall wait for a breakout from the range before turning positive. The longer the price remains inside the range, the stronger will be the eventual breakout.
ADA/USD
Cardano is struggling to break out of the overhead resistance at $0.181617. It has formed a small descending triangle pattern, which will complete on a close below $0.153807. The downside target of this bearish pattern is $0.109567, which is close to the June 29 lows. Therefore, we suggest trailing the stops on the existing long position to $0.14.
The ADA/USD pair will turn positive if it breaks out of the downtrend line and moves above $0.181617. Our first target on the upside is at $0.23.
Another possibility is that the virtual currency extends its consolidation between $0.15307 and $0.181617. However, due to the formation of a bearish pattern, we have decided to reduce our risk by raising the stops higher.
XLM/USD
Though we had anticipated a rally to $0.38, Stellar could only reach $0.36 on July 25.
The dip from the $0.36 was arrested at the uptrend line, which is a positive sign. The bulls are likely to make another attempt to break out of $0.36. If successful, the XLM/USD pair can rally to $0.38. Investors can book partial profits between $0.36 and $0.38, and hold the rest with a trailing stop loss.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears break below the uptrend line and the 20-day EMA. The investors can raise the stops on the existing long positions to just below the 20-day EMA.
IOTA/USD
The bulls are losing steam on IOTA as it is making lower highs after each successive pullback from the critical support at $0.9150.
During the current recovery attempt, the bulls have failed to secure a close above the 20-day EMA. This has led to a formation of a descending triangle, which will complete on a close below $0.9150. The resulting decline can extend to $0.5175 with intermittent support at $0.666. Therefore, we recommend a stop loss of $0.8850 on the existing long position
The IOTA/USD pair will show first signs of recovery if it can sustain above the downtrend line and will pick up momentum above $1.33.
TRX/USD
Tron is currently facing a stiff resistance at the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line. The range is getting squeezed between the downtrend line and $0.031.
We are likely to witness a break out or a break down of this tight range. If the bulls break out of the downtrend line, a rally to $0.056 with minor resistances at $0.044 and $0.052 is probable.
If the bears break below the July 12 lows, the TRX/USD pair can plunge to $0.0228. We shall wait for a new buy setup to form before suggesting any trades on it.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.
