With predictions for Bitcoin for this year ranging from $5,000 to $60,000, what do the charts actually say?
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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
During a bottoming process, prices swing up and down inside a range. This builds up the internal energy needed to break out or break down from it. Bart Smith, head of digital asset at Susquehanna International Group, said to CNBC that a lot of big investors are waiting for a dip to $5,000 to make an entry into Bitcoin.
Even Bitcoin bear, Todd Colvin, analyst at Ambrosino Brothers believes that “sophisticated investors will step in” at $5,000 on Bitcoin.
The current decline in cryptocurrencies has not deterred a few investors who have held their bullish targets. One of them is Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, who has a target of $25,000 for Bitcoin by the end of this year.
Another Bitcoin bull is Julian Hosp, president and co-founder of crypto wallet startup TenX who has a target of $60,000 by year end 2018.
We are similarly bullish on cryptocurrencies and believe that they are undergoing a base building process, however, our targets are much more muted. Long-term investors should use sharp falls to add the major coins to their portfolio. So, let’s see which are the ones that can be purchased now.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin turned down from the overhead resistance of $6,953.38 on July 9 and slipped below the 20-day EMA. If the current fall is stopped above the $6,250 mark, the probability of an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming will increase.
The bullish setup will complete on a breakout and close above $6,953.38. The pattern target of such a break out is $7,996.11.
Once the BTC/USD pair breaks out of the downtrend line, it will become positive and might climb to $8,560 and thereafter to $10,000.
Conversely, if the bulls fail to hold $6,250, a fall to $6,075 is probable. Below $5,900, the next support is at $5,450, hence, the stops for the long positions initiated at $6,650 should be kept at $5,900.
ETH/USD
The bulls could not push prices higher after breaking out of the 20-day EMA on July 7. The failure of Ethereum to move up attracted selling, which resulted in a breakdown of the 20-day EMA and the support at $450.1.
The next support on the downside is at $404.99. If this level also breaks, the ETH/USD pair can slump to the critical support at $358.
The cryptocurrency will become positive if it scales above $500. We shall wait for the breakout before suggesting any trades.
XRP/USD
Ripple is in a firm bear grip. It has again broken below $0.45351. Its next support is at $0.4242. If this level breaks, there is no major support until $0.24001.
On the upside, the 20-day EMA will continue to act as a stiff resistance. Above this level, the next resistance is at $0.52.
The XRP/USD pair will show signs of a turnaround once it sustains above $0.56. Until then, all pullbacks will be sold into.
We shall wait for the trend to change before proposing any trades on it.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash has turned down after failing to break out of the 20-day EMA. It is currently taking support close to the $700 levels. If this level breaks, the cryptocurrency can slide to $657.8 and below that to $619.7510.
On the upside, the BCH/USD pair will gain strength above the 20-day EMA. However, we shall turn positive only after the bulls sustain above $850 for 4 hours.
As this pair has a history of vertical rallies, we shall recommend a long position on any indication of a trend change.
EOS/USD
We were expecting the tight range on EOS to resolve on the upside, but our assumption has been proven wrong. The bears forced a breakdown of the range, which led to a sharp fall that has carried the digital currency to the critical support at $6.8926.
If the EOS/USD pair sustains below $6.89, it can slide to $5.961. If this level also breaks, the next support is at $5.1801.
On the upside, the digital currency will gain strength if it breaks out and sustains above the 20-day EMA and the downtrend line. We shall suggest a long position once it scales above $9.5.
LTC/USD
Litecoin re-entered the descending channel on July 8 and dropped to an intraday low of $76.450 on July 10. This shows that the digital currency is vulnerable to a deeper fall if it breaks below $74.
Our bearish view on the LTC/USD pair will be invalidated in the short term if the bulls scale above $92. However, we believe that the zone between $102 – $107 will offer a stiff resistance on the upside.
We shall wait for a buy setup to form before suggesting any long positions on the pair.
ADA/USD
After the bulls failed to scale above the 20-day EMA on Cardano for seven days, it’s now the turn of bears to try and break below the support zone of $0.111843 – $0.13. If the bears succeed, the coin can plunge to the next support at $0.0782.
If the bulls defend the support zone, the ADA/USD pair will once again attempt to rally above the 20-day EMA.
We shall turn positive only if the price sustains above $0.162 for a couple of days. Until then, we suggest to remain on the sidelines.
XLM/USD
The bulls have failed to secure a strong close above the 20-day EMA on Stellar, resulting in a slump back towards the low of $0.184.
The bears have not been able to sustain below $0.184 since December 14 of last year, which confirms this level as a value buy. We also like the developing positive divergence on the RSI.
However, the XLM/USD pair will attract buyers only if it is able to sustain above the intraday highs of July 3. Therefore, we suggest buying only if the bulls are able to achieve a close above $0.225.
IOTA/USD
IOTA is trying to bounce off the critical support at $0.9150, which is also the probable bottom of the large range.
On the upside, the IOTA/USD pair will face resistance at the 20-day EMA and the downtrend line.
Our suggested long position is deep in the red and will be out of danger only above $1.25 levels. Our assumption of a large range will be invalidated if the bears force a breakdown below the June 24 lows. Therefore, please close the position if the price sustains below $0.8850.
TRX/USD
TRON is looking weak as it continues to slide towards its support at $0.022806. In the recent pullback, the price did not even reach the 20-day EMA, which shows a lack of buying interest.
Below $0.03275, the TRX/USD pair can slide to $0.028. We believe that the zone between $0.0228 and $0.028 will attract long-term buyers.
The first sign of a change in trend will be when the price breaks out and sustains above the 20-day EMA and the downtrend line. We like the positive divergence on the RSI but shall wait for a price confirmation before proposing any trade on it.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.
