Bulls are still king as market signs point up, not down, says Filbfilb — but Friday’s futures expiry could spell trouble.
Bitcoin (BTC) can still top $13,000 and higher as a series of non-events still leave bulls in a powerful position.
Data from Coin360 and Cointelegraph Markets showed BTC/USD climbing toward $11,500 on Aug. 28 as one analyst said that the level is crucial to reclaim for gains to continue.
Cryptocurrency market daily snapshot, Aug. 28. Source: Coin360
BTC price: $11,500 close extends “bullish re-accumulation”
In an update to subscribers of his Telegram trading channel on Friday, trader Filbfilb said that despite the previous day’s volatility, he remained long on BTC.
“In context of the weekly chart, 11,000 appears to be holding as support but a close above the key 11,500 support/resistance level would be the immediate objective to remain relatively comfortable in the overall bullish re-accumulation idea,” he summarized.
This concept has some lofty targets — the monthly pivot at around $12,925, as well as monthly resistance from 2019 that saw Bitcoin hit $13,870.
Nevertheless, the signs were positive, with Filbfilb dismissing concerns over the Fed’s inflation speech and other pseudo-bearish signals for Bitcoin.
“I remained long yesterday for a few main reasons,” he explained.
“Negative futures premium, no lower low close, sheer panic on [crypto Twitter] and calls for 9k, no break of overall support and because the price action on gold and silver to which we have been heavily correlated practically tick for tick, reversed ahead of BTC which continued dumping.”
He described the speech itself as a “non-event,” which appeared to have been already priced in by the markets.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Coin360
Futures expiries and “maximum pain”
Looking ahead for the short term, only Friday’s futures settlement could spell a period of volatility to challenge the overall upside.
“Today we have August Futures closing which may result in volatility this afternoon so watch out for some action this afternoon,” Filbfilb added.
Futures settlement dates have historically added downward pressure to Bitcoin markets, but recent options expiries have conversely failed to move the market, despite much anticipation of volatility.
In a tweet, derivatives platform Deribit confirmed that 50,900 BTC ($580 million) and 291,000 Ether ($113.5 million) in open interest was set to expire on Friday. Between $11,000 and $11,500 is “maximum pain” for options traders, as this is the area in which options have the lowest intrinsic value.
“This flow is somewhat against that seen recently, suggesting some nervousness comments on options activity.
Futures “gaps” meanwhile form the focus for informal price bets among traders and holders this month. A “gap” occurs when one futures trading session begins at a different place to where the previous one left off — Bitcoin tends to move to “fill” the resulting void.
As Cointelegraph reported, a lower gap at $9,700 and a smaller one at $16,000, albeit in place for several years, are likely areas of interest for traders.
