Explaining the factors behind bitcoin’s price drop this year and exploring the latest in central bank news.
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In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and I, Ansel Lindner, reviewed my latest article “What Caused the Mid-Cycle Bitcoin Price Correction” and then did a tour of recent central bank news from around the world. We also hit on the future of China, North America and the Fourth Turning.
My recent article was about the most important narratives from the second quarter of the year, that when plotted on a chart, all overlap right as the bitcoin price fell in the second week of May 2021.
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) unlocks were so correlated to price that it is undeniable that they played a major role in price during this period. In the article you can get an introduction to the GBTC product, but for these show notes it will suffice to point out that the large series of unlocks while at a discount began the exact day of the current top, and continued until July 17, just before the bottom.
The next narrative was the Bitcoin mining ban in China. We breezed through this one, but identified an interesting connection between the Bitcoin ban and other communist authoritarian crackdowns happening right now in China.
The last major narrative during the big price drop was the Taproot upgrade. This flew under the radar for the casual observer of the space, but it was of high interest to the hardcore bitcoiners who lived through the last very contentious SegWit upgrade in 2017.
Our conversation then turned to central bank news. The main news involving the Federal Reserve is the explosion in reverse repo (RRP) and the new standing repo facility about to launch. We covered this in some depth, and I tried to connect some dots. Bottom line: As RRP rises over $1 trillion, the Fed refuses to talk taper and it is setting up an offsetting repo facility. We can say the fragility of the system is increasing. Perhaps, the Fed is expecting fireworks later in the year?
The situation developing in China is highly concerning. First, it banned bitcoin mining, then it banned U.S. IPOs. It has been cracking down on technology companies, effectively nationalizing them, and the latest news is the crackdown on video games as “spiritual opium.” If you place this in the context of the recession, the aggressive dealing with Hong Kong and the Uyghurs, and deglobalization, it might be the beginning of the end for the CCP. It’s important to remember the speed with which the Soviet Union collapsed. One year, academic experts were still claiming the Soviets were about to take over the world, the next they fell apart. The same could happen to the CCP.
We often fall into a geopolitical discussion, and this episode is no different in that regard. We wrapped up the show by talking about what the future holds for the U.S., China and the global economy.
Once again, this was a very entertaining show. You get a dose of central bank news in a broad global context, which today must include a heavy concern for bitcoin.
