Cryptocurrencies traded in a tight range this week, continuing a period of low volatility.
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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Bitcoin (BTC) turned ten on Oct. 31, but there were no fireworks to mark the celebrations: the cryptocurrencies continue to trade in a tight range. Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMEX, believes that the current period of low volatility can remain for another 12 to 18 months and can drag the price of the leading cryptocurrency to the $2,000–$3,000 zone.
However, we have a different opinion. We believe that the volatility is unlikely to stay subdued for long. Within the next few weeks, we should get a large range move that will start a new trend, either up or down.
BCH/USD
This week, we have a new leader, Bitcoin Cash, that has risen about 9 percent during the past week. Until Thursday, the price of the digital currency was languishing similar to the other cryptocurrencies. However, on Friday, prices soared following an announcement by crypto exchange Binance that it would support the impending hard fork on Nov. 15. After the initial bump up, can the rally continue? Let’s find out.
The long-term trend on the BCH/USD pair is clearly down. Throughout this year, it has failed to hold on to the support levels and has continually made a lower low. Though the bulls have held onto the $408.32 mark for the past seven weeks, they haven’t been able to push prices higher. This shows a lack of demand at higher levels.
The current pullback will face a stiff resistance in the zone of $591.41–$660.0753. If price sustains above this zone, it can climb to $891.4634 and thereafter to $1,200.
On the downside, $408.32 is the critical support, below which the fall can extend to $282. The longer the virtual currency stays in a tight range, the sharper the next move will be. It has a history of vertical rallies; therefore, the traders can buy when a reliable buy setup forms.
XLM/USD
After the recent listing of BAT on crypto exchange and wallet Coinbase, will Stellar be the next cryptocurrency that will make the cut? Many believe that XLM has the requisite credentials to be listed on Coinbase. If that happens, we might see a rally. What are the key levels to watch?
The XLM/USD pair has formed a large descending triangle pattern that will complete on a breakdown and close (UTC time frame) below $0.184. Currently, the bulls are attempting to break out of the downtrend line of the triangle, which will invalidate the bearish pattern. Failure of a bearish pattern is a bullish sign.
We like the way the digital currency has stayed above $0.2 levels for the past five weeks, which shows demand at lower levels. If the bulls succeed in sustaining above the downtrend line, a rally to $0.36 followed by a move to $0.47 is likely. Traders can wait for prices to sustain above $0.30 before buying. That is because if the prices turn down sharply after a break out of the downtrend line, the probability of a break down of $0.184 increases.
Featured cryptocurrency* – ARK/USD
ARK is currently ranked 71st in terms of market capitalization. It is about to release the much-anticipated new core code base, making it faster and modular with full plugin capabilities similar to WordPress.
Anyone can create their own fully customizable cross chain compatible blockchain using ARK. It will also be the first delegated proof of stake (DPOS) with a switch from static/flat fees to a customizable dynamic fee structure. There are a number of new features and partnerships being added regularly whose details can be accessed on its blog.
Similar to the other cryptocurrencies, the ARK/USD pair has also been in a strong downtrend since topping out in early-2018. The bulls attempted to stall the decline around the $2 mark, which was a strong support. However, the bears broke below it in early-June, resulting in a sharp fall.
The virtual currency bottomed out in mid-August at $0.50712042. Since then, the price has gradually inched higher, which is a positive sign. On the upside, $1.02093420 might act as a stiff resistance. If the bulls scale this level, a rally to the overhead resistance zone of $1.68–$2 is probable. The digital currency is likely to pick up momentum above $2.
On the downside, if the bears sink prices below $0.50712042, a fall to $0.40 and $0.30 is possible.
XMR/USD
Monero rose by just over 1 percent in the past seven days, claiming the third spot in the list of top performing cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of more than $1 billion.
Since early July, the XMR/USD pair has been trading in the range of $81–$150. For the past seven weeks, the range has shrunk to $100.453–$128.65. From last week, the weekly range has reduced further. The tighter and longer the range, the stronger the eventual breakout or breakdown will be.
However, the first move is often a false one. Therefore, traders should wait for the breakout to sustain and show follow up buying before jumping in to buy. There are no significant resistances above $150 until $300.
Conversely, a break below $100.453 will increase the probability of a fall to $81. This is a major support, as it has not been breached convincingly for more than a year. Hence, if this level gets broken, the digital currency can quickly correct to $52–$58.
EOS/USD
EOS again received the top standing in China’s 6th global public blockchain technology assessment index. On the other hand, research conducted by benchmarking firm Whiteblock for ConsenSys concluded that EOS lacks “the fundamental components of a blockchain or peer-to-peer network” and is “fundamentally same as a centralized cloud computing architecture.”
The EOS/USD pair has been trading inside the range of $4.493–$6.8299 since August. For the past five weeks, the range has tightened further. This shows a balance between the bulls and the bears. Currently, neither party is making a major move and new investors are sitting on the sidelines.
If the price breaks out of the tight range, it can move up to $6.8299. Above this, we anticipate buying to resume that can carry the digital currency to $9.4456 and $15. However, if the price breaks below the current tight range, it can drop to $4.49, which is a minor support. $3.8723 is the critical support, below which the price might plummet to $2.40 and $1.70.
XRP/USD
Ripple has been making progress in signing various institutions to its platforms, mainly targeting cross-border payments. The Middle East is a lucrative market for the company because of the high level of payments that go in and out of the region. Ripple has already tied up with a few banks in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, and the company now reportedly plans to open an office in Dubai by the end of the year. How does its chart look?
The XRP/USD pair rallied sharply in mid-September. However, the bulls could not sustain the momentum and the pullback extended to 78.6 percent retracement levels. Usually after such a deep retracement, a range bound action for a few weeks is likely. For the past two weeks, the 20-week EMA is acting as a resistance. If the bulls break out of the immediate resistance zone at $0.475–$0.5, a move to $0.62 and $0.7644 is plausible. We expect a new uptrend to begin above $0.76440.
If the bears sink the price below $0.37185, the virtual currency will complete a 100 percent retracement and drop to the critical support at $0.24508.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.
*Disclaimer: ARK is a featured cryptocurrency from one of Cointelegraph’s sponsors, and its inclusion did not affect this price analysis.
