In a stark contrast to previous year, every fall of the crypto markets in 2018 is followed by a very weak recovery.
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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
In 2018, every consecutive fall of the crypto markets was followed by a very weak recovery. This is in stark contrast to 2017, during which every fall was followed by a ‘V’ shaped recovery. The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies is hovering close to the $215 billion mark, after having dipped below $190 billion on August 14.
The next trigger is likely to be the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decision regarding the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). If a new ETF proposal gets rejected again, we might witness another downward move.
On the other hand, if an ETF proposal is approved, the crypto markets might jump higher, signaling the formation of a bottom.
Let’s see which digital currencies are comparatively safe and can thus be bought into.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin (BTC) has been forming a higher low for the past five consecutive days, but on the upside $6,617.5 has been acting as a major roadblock. Currently, the 20-day EMA and the downtrend line have all converged close to $6,617.5, therefore we anticipate a strong resistance at this level.
If the bulls succeed in sustaining above the overhead resistance, the probability of a move back to $8,566 increases because the failure of a negative pattern is a bullish sign.
Therefore, we suggest buying above $6,750 with the stop loss at $5,900. Please use 50 percent of the usual allocation for this trade. We shall add the remaining 50 percent if the BTC/USD pair sustains above $7,000.
If the bulls fail to break out of $6,617.5, a few more days of consolidation are likely. The virtual currency will become negative only below $5,900.
ETH/USD
The pullback щn Ethereum (ETH) has hit a wall and turned down from $321.1. Currently, the bulls are trying to defend the $280 line.
If the ETH/USD pair sustains above the support zone of $277 – $280, the bulls will make another attempt to break out of $323.33. If successful, the upward move can reach $358, which might act as a stiff resistance.
If the bears break below $277, a retest of the August 14 lows will be on the cards. Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is close to the oversold territory, which shows that the sellers still hold the edge. Therefore, we shall wait for the trend to change before suggesting a trade on the pair.
XRP/USD
Ripple broke out of the 20-day EMA on August 17 but could not sustain the higher levels. It dropped back below the moving average on August 18 and has since then been trading below it. It has a slew of resistances until it breaks out of the 50-day SMA.
The pullback of the past few days has corrected the deeply oversold condition of the RSI. If the bulls break out of $0.37390, the XRP/USD pair can extend the pullback to $0.5.
If the bears sink the virtual currency below $0.31214, the decline can extend to $0.29088 and thereafter to the intraday lows of August 14. If we get a reliable buy setup, we might consider suggesting long positions close to the $0.38 mark.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash pulled back into the range on August 17 but faced a strong resistance at the 20-day EMA. Currently, the price has again corrected close to the critical support of $537.8221.
If the bears sink the BCH/USD pair below $537, a retest of the August 14 lows is possible. On the other hand, if the bulls succeed in holding above $537.8221, another attempt to break out of the 20-day EMA is likely.
On the upside, a break out of the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line will indicate that the bearish momentum is waning. The first resistance is in the zone of $880 – $891. If this level is crossed, the next target is $1,200.
We shall wait for the prices to sustain above the downtrend line before recommending any trades.
EOS/USD
The 20-day EMA continues to act as a stiff resistance for EOS. However, it has not given up much ground in the past two days, which is a positive sign. We also like the way the bulls defended the critical support of $3.8723. This shows demand at lower levels.
If the bulls break out of the 20-day EMA, a rally to the 50-day SMA, followed by a move to $9 is probable. Therefore, we propose a long position at $6, with the initial stop loss at $4.8. The traders can raise the stops to break even if the EOS/USD pair struggles to break out of the 50-day SMA.
On the downside, if the bears break below $4.8121, a decline to $4.4036 is possible.
XLM/USD
Stellar is finding it difficult to break out of the $0.25 level. It turned down from $0.24684115 on August 18. It might now correct to $0.205.
A break out of the $0.25 level can carry the XLM/USD pair to the downtrend line where it might face resistance. We retain the existing buy recommendation made on August 15.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the digital currency below $0.184. We can’t find any buy setups for as long as the price remains inside the range of $0.25 – $0.184.
LTC/USD
Litecoin is in a downtrend as both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is also in the negative territory. As expected, the bears are defending the 20-day EMA.
If the bears break below the support at $49.466, the LTC/USD pair will resume its downtrend and reach $40.
The cryptocurrency will show first signs of a change in trend when it breaks out and sustains above the downtrend line. We suggest traders wait for the trend to change before initiating any long positions on the pair.
ADA/USD
After a strong support is broken down, it becomes a strong resistance. We can see that on Cardano, where the previous strong support of $0.111843 is now acting as a strong resistance.
The 20-day EMA is sloping down, whereas the 50-day SMA is flattening. We shall turn positive on the ADA/USD pair only after it breaks out of the downtrend line and the 50-day SMA.
On the downside, any break of the August 14 lows can result in a retest of the long-term support of $0.078.
XMR/USD
Monero is in a downtrend as price is quoting below both moving averages and the long-term downtrend line. The bulls broke out of the 20-day EMA on August 18 but could not sustain the higher levels. For the past two days, the cryptocurrency has been consolidating close to the moving average, which is a positive sign.
If the XMR/USD pair sustains above the 20-day EMA, a rally to the 50-day SMA is probable. On the downside, if the bears break below $94.3, a fall to $84 is likely.
Both moving averages are flattening out, which points to a consolidation for the next few days. We shall try to establish positions when we have a well-defined range. Until then, it is best to remain on the sidelines.
IOTA/USD
IOTA is in a downtrend with both moving averages sloping down and the RSI in the negative territory. The pullback is facing resistance close to the $0.575 mark.
If the bulls break out of the 20-day EMA, they can carry the IOTA/USD pair to the 50-day SMA, which is likely to offer a strong resistance.
On the downside, any break of the August 14 lows will increase the probability of a fall to $0.33. We can’t find a confirmation of a bottom yet, so we are not suggesting a trade on the pair.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.
