The potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC would be a boost to the crypto markets, but not to the extent of last year’s rally.
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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Institutional investors and the approval of a crypto exchange traded fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are the two possible triggers that could boost the recovery in cryptocurrencies.
The SEC has decided to postpone making a decision on the Direxion Bitcoin ETF application until September. However, many crypto enthusiasts hope that the application filed by money manager VanEck and SolidX might see the light of day within the next few weeks.
While these applications are pending, San Francisco-based asset manager Bitwise has jumped into the fray with a proposal of an ETF that would track a basket of 10 cryptocurrencies. While the others are applying for Bitcoin-only ETFs, the Bitwise HOLD 10 Cryptocurrency Index would track multiple cryptocurrencies, collectively covering about 80 percent of the total market capitalization.
So, with these positive expectations, can we see a repeat of the past year’s rally? Unlikely.
We believe that it will be a slow grind upwards with various pit stops in between. Therefore, traders should not get greedy and should book partial profits at regular intervals. Let’s see the important levels to watch out for.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin broke out and closed above the downtrend line of the descending triangle on July 23. The very next day, it surpassed $7,750 and reached the $8,500 mark as projected in our previous analysis.
Considering the sharp rally from the lows, we anticipate the BTC/USD pair to face a stiff resistance around the $8,500 mark.
If the bulls provide support at the trendline or at $7,750, we are likely to witness another attempt to break out of $8,566.4. If the virtual currency fails to scale above $8,500 once more, traders can book partial profits close to $8,400.
Conversely, if the bulls break above $8,500, the digital currency can rally to $10,000. Therefore, traders can hold their remaining long positions initiated at $6,650 and trail their stops higher to $7200. This will make the trade risk-free and lock-in some of the paper profits.
The momentum will weaken if the bears sink the prices below $7,750.
ETH/USD
The pullback on Ethereum hit a roadblock at the 50-day SMA. Currently, the prices have corrected back to the 20-day EMA, which should offer some support. Below this, the trendline is the next support.
If the ETH/USD pair breaks below the trendline, it can slide to $440 and below that to the lower support at $404.99. A break of this support can extend the fall to $358. Therefore, we suggest to maintain the stop loss on the long position at $400.
On the upside, a break of the $500 line will increase the probability of a rally to $600 with a minor resistance at $550.
XRP/USD
Ripple is looking weak as it continues to trade close to the critical support line of $0.4242. This shows that the buyers are not keen to own it even at these levels.
A breakdown of the $0.4242 level will be a negative development as it can lead to a further decline to $0.33.
On the upside, the $0.51978 – $0.5627 zone will continue to act as a strong resistance. We shall turn positive on the XRP/USD pair once it sustains above $0.5627. Until then, we recommend sticking to the other cryptocurrencies that are showing a positive momentum.
BCH/USD
Though Bitcoin Cash closed above $838.9139 on July 24, it could not extend its gains. It is currently facing resistance at the downtrend line.
The moving averages are close to completing a bullish crossover, which is a positive sign. On the downside, we anticipate a strong support at the 20-day EMA. If the bears break below the 20-day EMA, the BCH/USD pair can slide down to $670.
The coin will gain momentum above $935.
As price is hovering above both moving averages, we recommend holding the existing long positions with the stops below $650.
EOS/USD
EOS continues to consolidate between $6.8926 and $9.4456. If the bulls break out of this range, it will indicate the start of a new trend with an immediate target of $11.64. If this level is crossed, the upward move can extend to $14.
Therefore, the traders can buy about 40 percent of their desired allocation if the breakout sustains above $9.4456 for four hours.
Following the breakout from the range, if the EOS/USD pair struggles to scale above $11.64, the long position should be closed.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the virtual currency breaks down of the $6.8926 mark.
LTC/USD
Litecoin continues to trade inside the range between $74.074 and $91.146. Attempts by the bulls to break out of this zone were thwarted by the bears for the past two days.
The 20-day EMA is gradually turning up but the 50-day SMA continues to slope down. The first bullish sign will be a breakout and close above $91.146, which can carry the LTC/USD pair to the overhead resistance at $107.
The long-term downtrend line is located close to $107, which will act as a strong resistance.
Therefore, we shall turn bullish on the digital currency only after it sustains above $107. Until then, we suggest traders remain on the sidelines.
ADA/USD
Cardano has been consolidating between $0.153807 and $0.18617 for the past four days. We anticipate a breakout or breakdown of this range within the next couple of days.
A breakout can carry the ADA/USD pair to $0.23 and a breakdown can result in a retest of the lows at $0.13.
As the moving averages have completed a bullish crossover, we suggest holding the long position with the recommended stop loss.
XLM/USD
Stellar has been consolidating near the overhead resistance of $0.31312212 for the past four days and has not given up much ground, which is a positive sign.
A breakout above $0.31312212 can carry the XLM/USD pair to $0.38 where we anticipate another round of profit booking. Therefore, the investors should book partial profits close to $0.38 and trail the stops on the remaining positions to secure their projected profits. Our eventual target is a retest of $0.477.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears defend $0.31312212 and push prices below $0.2544. Therefore, we suggest the investors trail their stops on the existing long position higher to just below the 50-day SMA.
IOTA/USD
The bears attempted to sink IOTA below the critical support at $0.9150 on July 24, but the bulls defended the $0.90 line.
The resulting pullback from the support line is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA. Once this level is crossed, a move to the 50-day SMA will be on the cards.
The IOTA/USD pair will face a strong resistance at the downtrend line of the descending triangle and above that at $1.33. The trend will change if price sustains above $1.33.
The RSI has formed a positive divergence, which is a bullish sign. Therefore, we suggest holding the existing long position with a stop loss at $0.8850.
TRX/USD
Though Tron dipped below $0.03275 on July 24, it stayed above the July 12 low of $0.03100749. However, the pullback continues to face resistance at the 50-day SMA.
The RSI has formed a positive divergence, which increases the probability of a rally to $0.056. The move will be confirmed once the TRX/USD pair breaks out and sustains above the 50-day SMA.
The bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sustain below $0.031. We shall wait for a buy setup to form before suggesting a trade on the pair.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.
